Kosmo! Online - Dunia

Kosmo! Online - Dunia

Ekonomi Eropah diramal goyah pada 2012

GAMBAR tidak bertarikh yang disediakan oleh pejabat pencetakan Jerman menunjukkan wang kertas 50 euro sedia untuk diagihkan di Berlin.

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LONDON, Britain - Saham Eropah dan mata wang euro diramal berdepan pergolakan baharu pada 2012 selepas mata wang tunggal Kesatuan Eropah (EU) berkenaan merosot berbanding dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) susulan krisis hutang negara-negara Eropah.
Bursa-bursa utama Eropah menjunam antara 6.5 dan 25 peratus sejak permulaan tahun ini manakala mata wang euro merosot 2.5 peratus berbanding dolar dalam dagangan turun naik sepanjang bulan ini.
"Siapa yang dapat menyangka bahawa menjelang November, kita bercakap tentang bukan sahaja keruntuhan negara-negara mata wang euro tetapi tentang kemungkinan pembubaran EU," kata pakar strategi kanan firma BGC Partners, Howard Wheeldon.
"Siapa yang menyangka dalam tempoh sesingkat itu ekonomi EU berhenti daripada berkembang manakala pertumbuhan kembali ekonomi rantau berkenaan dilihat terlalu sukar," tambahnya.
Mata wang euro menamatkan dagangan tahun ini dengan menjunam di bawah AS$1.30 untuk satu euro sekali gus tahap terendah sejak permulaan tahun 2011.
Mata wang tunggal EU itu turut menjunam pada takat terendah berbanding yen sejak 10 tahun lalu dalam dagangan pada September lepas.
Keadaan tersebut berikutan kebimbangan pelabur berhubung ketidaktentuan ekonomi global dan kemerosotan nilai ekuiti di Eropah dan AS.
"Krisis mata wang euro dijangka semakin meruncing. Ekonomi global (pada 2012) diramal sama ada menyusut ke dalam kemelesetan atau mengalami pengurangan dalam pertumbuhan," kata penganalisis Commerzbank, Ulrich Leuchtmann.
"Pelaburan dalam mata wang dolar mungkin menguntungkan selain mata wang yen dan emas," tambahnya. - AFP
Sumber : Kosmo Online

Utusan Malaysia Online - Rencana

Utusan Malaysia Online - Rencana

Dr Mahathir atasi krisis kewangan

MUNCULNYA satu detik, yang jarang sekali berlaku dalam hidup, apabila suatu peristiwa menakrifkan semula kehidupan seseorang dan merubah haluan buat selama-lamanya. Bagi saya, pertemuan dengan Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad di Buenos Aires, Argentina, pada petang 2 Oktober 1997 merupakan detik itu. Ia membolehkan saya memberi tumpuan selama enam tahun dalam kehidupan saya untuk berkhidmat dengan beliau, dan menemuinya hampir setiap hari. Sepanjang proses itu, ia membolehkan saya melihat lebih dekat keupayaan yang dimiliki insan hebat ini.

Jarang sekali kita melihat gabungan nilai-nilai mulia dalam diri seseorang, dan gabungan unik inilah yang membolehkan Dr Mahathir mengubah Malaysia daripada sebuah negara Dunia Ketiga kepada negara berkembang maju dan bertenaga, dan kini berada pada landasannya untuk menjadi negara maju. Gabungan kualiti ini jugalah yang membolehkan Dr Mahathir menyelamatkan Malaysia daripada menjadi sebuah lagi negara IMF semasa krisis kewangan 1997/98.

Ia bermula pada 29 September 1997, apabila saya menerima panggilan telefon dari pejabat Perdana Menteri yang memberitahu Dr Mahathir mahu menemui saya. Beliau berada di Cuba pada ketika itu, dan secara berseloroh, saya bertanya, adakah saya harus menemuinya di sana!

Saya diberitahu, bukan secara berseloroh, bahawa beliau akan tiba di Buenos Aires pada 2 Oktober dan saya harus memastikan diri saya berada di situ sekurang-kurangnya sehari sebelum ketibaan beliau. Saya segera berlepas ke Argentina, dan tiba pada 1 Oktober.

Perdana Menteri tiba pada 5 petang hari berikutnya dan kami segera bertemu di suite beliau. Dr Mahathir memberitahu, beliau telah bertanya ramai orang mengenai punca krisis kewangan tetapi tiada siapa mampu memberi penjelasan memuaskan. Beliau bertanya sama ada saya boleh menjelaskan apa sebenarnya yang berlaku.

Saya bertanya berapa banyak masa beliau ada. Dua jam, katanya. Saya pun menjelaskan bagaimana pasaran pertukaran asing berlaku, tentang kedudukan jangka pendek dan panjang, mengenai perlindungan nilai, bagaimana matawang dipinjam dan dijual, perbezaan "tawaran" dan "penawaran" serta bagaimana dana boleh dipindahkan di antara negara hanya dengan satu klik. Saya juga menjelaskan bagaimana pasaran ekuiti berlaku dan hubungan antara pasaran tukaran mata wang asing dan pasaran ekuiti. Dr Mahathir langsung tidak bercakap, kecuali bertanya satu atau dua soalan, dan mendengar penuh mendalam.

Selepas dua jam, beliau terpaksa menamatkan pertemuan itu untuk bersedia ke majlis makan malam rasmi. Beliau bertanya rancangan saya untuk malam itu dan saya memberitahu bahawa saya turut dijemput ke majlis yang sama. Dr Mahathir berkata: "Pulang ke bilik anda dan tulis semua yang anda beritahu sejak dua jam lepas, dan jumpa saya 7 pagi esok." Saya kembali ke bilik saya, tidak ke majlis makan malam dan menulis kesemuanya, yang selesai kira-kira 6 pagi.

Laporan

Saya menyerahkan laporan itu padanya sejam kemudian. Beliau menyuruh saya berehat dan menemuinya semula pada 2 petang. Apabila saya kembali menemuinya, beliau memberitahu beliau telah membaca laporan itu dan faham apa yang berlaku dalam pasaran kewangan. Kami mula membincangkan pelbagai kaedah untuk mengatasi krisis itu, dan perbincangan kami diteruskan selepas pulang ke Malaysia. Saya menemui beliau hampir setiap hari, kadang kala di kediaman beliau, dan pada masa lain di pejabat beliau. Kami mencuba beberapa mekanisme untuk mengatasi krisis itu, ada antaranya yang berfungsi pada mulanya, tetapi dana lindung nilai begitu kukuh hingga sukar untuk meneruskan penggunaan mekanisme itu dengan jayanya.

Pada awal 1998, Dr Mahathir meminta saya menerokai idea untuk mengenakan rejim kawalan pertukaran bagi mengatasi krisis itu. Saya masih ingat bagaimana saya menyediakan banyak nota mengenai perkara itu. Dr Mahathir meneliti nota-nota itu, dan sentiasa meminta maklumat demi maklumat. Kami telah melalui banyak pusingan perbincangan, sehingga beliau akhirnya yakin dengan kedua-dua konsep dan mekanisme yang dicadangkan. Selebihnya, saya rasa sudah menjadi sejarah.

Dr Mahathir juga meminta saya menyediakan satu kertas kerja mengenai bagaimana menamatkan dagangan saham-saham Malaysia di CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) di Singapura. Beliau berpendapat, satu sebab penting mengakibatkan pasaran saham jatuh ialah jualan singkat saham Malaysia di CLOB. Saya menyediakan laporan dan Dr Mahathir memahami, buat pertama kalinya, bagaimana CLOB beroperasi. Laporan itu, yang turut dilaksanakan pada 1 September 1998, telah menamatkan perdagangan saham Malaysia di CLOB.

Saya perlu menyatakan bahawa langkah-langkah kawalan pertukaran telah direka sedemikian rupa untuk meminimumkan aspek-aspek kawalan dan memaksimumkan hasil. Dr Mahathir telah meneliti banyak kali mekanisme yang dicadangkan itu untuk memastikan hanya ada sedikit elemen kawalan tetapi mencukupi untuk memastikan hasil yang positif. Tidak ada elemen birokrasi dalam langkah-langkah itu, seperti mewajibkan pengimport untuk mendapatkan kebenaran Bank Negara bagi mengimport. Ringgit juga ditambat pada tahap di mana ia tidak terlebih nilai.

Di hampir setiap negara lain yang mengenakan langkah-langkah kawalan pertukaran dan penambatan matawang, secara definisinya, banyak kawalan birokrasi dan matawang juga ditambat pada kadar terlebih nilai.

Sistem kawalan pertukaran (termasuk kadar pertukaran tetap), yang dilaksanakan pada 1 September 1998, sering dianggap sebagai penyelamat negara. Langkah itu sememangnya diperlukan tetapi ia tidak cukup untuk mengatasi krisis itu. Malaysia diselamatkan, bukan dengan kawalan pertukaran itu sendiri, tetapi oleh Dr Mahathir.

Biar saya jelaskan. Jika mana-mana negara membangun lain, yang menghadapi krisis sama, memperkenalkan langkah yang kita perkenalkan pada September 1998, ia mungkin gagal. Langkah-langkah itu berjaya di Malaysia adalah kerana keupayaan dan watak Dr Mahathir. Ekonomi dan sistem kewangan, di bawah kepimpinannya berada dalam keadaan sihat - cukup sihat untuk membolehkan langkah-langkah kawalan pertukaran dilaksanakan tanpa kesan negatif. Selain itu, gaya pengurusan kendiri Perdana Menteri membolehkan keputusan cepat dan tepat pada masanya dibuat, yang penting di bawah rejim kawalan pertukaran baru.

Beliau memastikan ekonomi Malaysia pada asasnya kukuh. Ringgit kukuh dan stabil. Di belakang kestabilan matawang (pada RM2.50 berbanding dolar Amerika Syarikat), Malaysia berada pada kedudukan amat baik. Pada akhir 1996, keluaran dalam negara kasar berkembang hampir 8.5 peratus dan pertumbuhan itu dijangka berterusan untuk tahun-tahun mendatang. Kerajaan telah menikmati lebihan fiskal. Hutang luar negara adalah rendah, pada 40 peratus daripada keluaran negara kasar. Akaun matawang dari imbangan pembayaran telah mengecil daripada defisit 10 peratus kepada lima peratus daripada KNK, dan dijangka terus bertambah baik. Inflasi berada pada tahap paling rendah iaitu 2.1 peratus. Kita mempunyai pertumbuhan kukuh lebih lapan peratus bagi sebahagian besar tempoh itu. Dan kekuatan asas ini merupakan faktor penting yang membolehkan langkah kawalan pertukaran berjaya.

Meneliti

Selama lebih setahun lepas langkah 1 September 1998 itu, Perdana Menteri bertemu kumpulan kecil kami enam hari seminggu - sekurang-kurangnya dua jam sehari - bagi meneliti pelbagai data ekonomi termasuk mengenai pertumbuhan pinjaman, eksport, import dan hartanah tidak terjual. Ini membolehkan beliau mengambil tindakan cepat, pada bila-bila masa perlu. Saya masih ingat satu pagi, semasa kami sedang meneliti angka-angka hartanah, beliau memandang saya dan mengarahkan saya menganjurkan pameran untuk menghabiskan hartanah yang tidak terjual. Saya lakukannya, dan hartanah bernilai lebih RM3 bilion telah dijual. Malah selepas berakhirnya krisis itu, Dr Mahathir terus menemui kumpulan kami, walaupun tidak sekerap sebelumnya. Dan Dr Mahathir terus meneliti semua data ekonomi dengan pensel tajam.

Tempoh 1997/98 adalah, mengikut parafrasa Charles Dickens, masa terburuk, tetapi ia juga masa terbaik. Keadaan paling buruk telah menyerlahkan yang terbaik dalam diri Dr Mahathir. Ada perumpamaan mengatakan pemimpin yang baik adalah seperti teh yang baik - anda hanya mengetahui kualiti sebenarnya apabila beliau berada dalam keadaan panas!

Sepanjang tempoh krisis, Perdana Menteri memberi tumpuan pada usaha mengatasinya. Siang malam, tiada perkara lain difikirkannya. Beliau membaca segala yang boleh mengenai kewangan; beliau terus meminta saya menyediakan nota-nota pelbagai isu teknikal. Kadang kala, walaupun selesema, beliau tetap bekerja. Beliau sedar beliau perlu memahami isu-isu berkenaan sebelum boleh berusaha mencari penyelesaian. Kepintaran semula jadi dan keupayaan beliau memberi tumpuan pada isu-isu teras sentiasa terserlah sepanjang krisis itu. Beliau tidak menunjukkan tanda takut walaupun dalam masa terburuk; satu-satunya kebimbangan beliau ialah keadaan ekonomi yang cepat merosot. Pada setiap masa, beliau yakin akan berjaya akhirnya.

Saya ingin menambah dua lagi perkara. Pertama, dalam melaksanakan langkah 1 September 1998, Dr Mahathir bukan saja menyelamatkan Malaysia malah negara-negara jiran juga.

Apabila Malaysia mengenakan langkah kawalan pertukaran, spekulator matawang menyedari negara lain yang terjejas (Thailand, Indonesia dan Korea Selatan) juga boleh mengenakan kawalan yang sama, dan mereka, dengan itu menghentikan aktiviti mereka. Spekulator menarik diri. Mereka membeli semula matawang yang mereka jual. Ini mengakibatkan kenaikan nilai mata wang serantau.

Selain itu, IMF tidak berpuas hati dengan tindakan Malaysia terutamanya sejak selepas melaksanakan langkah-langkah itu, kita melakukan perkara sebaliknya daripada apa yang IMF mahu - kita turunkan kadar faedah dan menyuntik kecairan dalam sistem. IMF kemudian mula melonggarkan syarat di negara lain dan membenarkan mereka merendahkan kadar faedah dan menyuntik kecairan bagi merangsang ekonomi mereka supaya Malaysia tidak mengatasi negara-negara IMF itu.

Perkara kedua ialah apa yang akan terjadi jika langkah kawalan pertukaran tidak dilaksanakan. Banyak syarikat di Malaysia mungkin gulung tikar akibat kadar faedah tinggi. Apabila syarikat jatuh seperti domino, bank akan menghadapi masalah kecairan dan mampu bayar yang teruk berikutan pinjaman tidak berbayar semakin membesar.

Masalah yang dihadapi oleh bank akan menyebabkan berlakunya tekanan kredit, yang akan membawa kepada satu lagi pusingan kegagalan korporat. Pendapatan kerajaan mungkin merosot dengan mendadak kerana kurang firma akan membayar cukai korporat, dengan itu mengurangkan keupayaan kerajaan untuk merangsang ekonomi melalui langkah dasar fiskal. Akibat daripada masalah yang dihadapi syarikat dan bank, kadar pengangguran akan meningkat dengan ketara, yang membawa kepada pusingan masalah kedua.

Ini adalah putaran ganas yang klasik, yang akhirnya boleh memusnahkan kestabilan sosial dan politik negara. Ini adalah senario yang menunggu untuk berlaku. Namun, ia tidak berlaku kerana ketegasan dan keberanian Dr Mahathir, yang memutuskan untuk berusaha melalui jalan yang jarang dilalui. (less path travelled)

Source : Utusan Malaysia Online

Gold Jewelry prices are on the rise

The universal Gold jewelry prices depend on the demand for gold. Gold is a precious metal and is a favorite among jewelers anywhere in the world. It is known for its luster, unique beauty and global appeal. The biggest source of demand for gold is from the jewelry sector. In fact the demand for this rare metal is far exceeding the supply from mine production. This excess demand is being met by supplies from industrial scrap and recycled jewel.

Gold jewelry prices also depend on the quantity of gold it contains. A piece of jewelry may be made up of other metals, precious stones apart from gold. Also it depends on the weight age of gold or the purity of gold. The more the karat the purer is the gold. The jeweler will add some making charges depending on the design.

So the cost of jewelry will include all these components. What do you do when you need to buy gold jewelry? You go to a well-known jewelry store and purchase it. Or if you have a certain design in mind, then you get it specially designed. All these increase the gold jewelry price because there are a lot of overhead costs incurred.

There is another option available in recent times. This option is quite profitable if you want to buy gold in the form of jewelry for investment purpose. It is buying Gold jewelry online. The online stores have a variety of designs available. Also since it's for investment the design should not matter much. But make sure you check on the purity of gold. The advantage of buying online is that the gold jewelry houses cut down on overhead costs and these savings are passed on to the buyer by giving them a better good deal on the piece of jewelry. In fact there is a lot of competition for your money when it comes to buying online. So every online jewelry house is trying to better the offer when compared to the gold jewelry price given by its rival. Just a word of caution though, before you go in for buying gold jewelry online.

Do some research before deciding on a jeweler. The website information should be in detail and should give clear instructions.

It should be a secured site as you will need to give your personal details and credit card details online.

Some of them give extra discounts and offers especially during festive seasons; check out their customer service helpline, any returns policy or any tax that you should pay on purchase. All these factors go a long way in determining the gold jewelry prices.

Resources : Commodity Online

TERKINI : Produk GCP GOLDBAR 1 Gram

Produk terbaru GCP telah mula dilancarkan iaitu Goldbar 1gram.

 

Kod Agen : AD1998          Tel/SMS : 017-2402580

myMetro | Keliru guna dinar emas

myMetro | Keliru Guna Dinar Emas

MASIH ramai yang belum memahami mengenai kepentingan penggunaan dinar emas dalam perdagangan antarabangsa berbanding dolar Amerika, malah beranggapan ia boleh dijadikan duit untuk pembelian semua barang.

Bekas Perdana Menteri, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad berkata, sekarang ini, kalau kita beli atau jual barang, kita menggunakan dolar Amerika dengan nilai yang kadang-kadang turun, kadang-kadang naik, sedangkan sebenarnya mata wang dolar tidak ada nilai.

“Nilai dolar Amerika ini tidak menentu dan secara tidak langsung akan memberi kesan kepada industri perdagangan negara,” kata beliau pada sidang akhbar selepas melancarkan Dinar Emas Larian Sahara 2012 di Kuala Lumpur, kelmarin.

Beliau berkata dinar emas akan tetap mempunyai nilai di mana saja mengikut berat emas.

Oleh itu, kata Dr Mahathir, adalah penting untuk negara menggunakan dinar emas untuk bayaran jual beli dagangan antarabangsa berbanding dolar Amerika.

myMetro | Emas mampu jadi jaminan masa depan

myMetro | Emas mampu jadi jaminan masa depan

SEMPENA 2011 yang bakal melabuhkan tirai tidak lama lagi, Habib Jewels akan mengadakan jualan akhir tahun sebagai tanda penghargaan dan terima kasih kepada pelanggan setianya.

Ia juga sempena sambutan ulang tahun ke-25 syarikat itu dari 23 hingga 26 Disember ini. Istimewanya, pada 23 Disember akan diadakan jualan larut malam di ibu pejabat Habib Jewels di Ampang Point, Kuala Lumpur, dari jam 10.30 pagi hingga 12 tengah malam.

Sempena jualan istimewa itu, 100 pelanggan pertama berpeluang memiliki loket emas berharga RM88 dan sepasang subang mutiara pada harga RM48 saja.

Menurut Meer, jualan cuci gudang kali ini adalah yang terbesar pernah diadakan.

“Setiap tahun Habib akan buat jualan akhir tahun sebagai hadiah kepada pelanggan. Mereka akan dapat menikmati potongan sehingga 70 peratus untuk barang kemas berlian dan batu permata.

“Kami turut memberi potongan RM8 hingga RM20 bagi satu gram emas 916, selain pembeli berpeluang memenangi jongkong emas dan barangan eksklusif Habib dalam cabutan bertuah dengan sebarang pembelian bernilai RM500 ke atas dalam satu resit,” katanya yang berharap pelanggan tidak akan melepaskan peluang ini.

Hasil jualan cuci gudang berkenaan akan didermakan ke Yayasan Habib bagi membantu golongan kurang bernasib baik dan memerlukan.

Pelanggan turut berpeluang mendapat hadiah percuma dengan pembelian bernilai RM2,000 ke atas dalam satu resit.

Ditanya mengenai trend terkini masyarakat yang lebih gemar menyimpan emas di bank berbanding wang disebabkan potensi tinggi pada masa depan, Meer mengakui hakikat itu.

“Harga emas sememangnya tinggi dan akan terus naik setiap masa. Sekarang adalah masa terbaik menjadikan emas sebagai pelaburan menguntungkan kerana ia boleh dijadikan jaminan masa depan.

“Penggemar barang kemas, berlian mahupun permata wajar memanfaatkan kesempatan ini untuk memiliki barang kegemaran mereka kerana harga ditawarkan jauh lebih murah berbanding harga sebenar,” kata anak keempat daripada lima beradik itu.

Survey Participants Split But With Slight Downside Bias On Gold Prices Next Week

Resources : KITCO

myMetro | Kewangan Islam miliki kekuatan hadapi krisis ekonomi

myMetro | Kewangan Islam miliki kekuatan hadapi krisis ekonomi

KRISIS kewangan dan bebanan hutang yang melanda negara Eropah memberi ruang terbaik kepada pembangunan sektor kewangan Islam negara apabila mencatatkan lebih 60 peratus penguasaan pasaran sukuk terbesar daripada terbitan sukuk global pada tahun ini.

Mantan Perdana Menteri, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkata, krisis itu menunjukkan sistem kewangan Islam mempunyai kekuatan untuk menghadapi pelbagai situasi ekonomi dunia yang tidak dapat dijangka berbanding sistem kewangan konvensional.

“Sistem kewangan Islam di Malaysia menjadi satu-satunya sistem yang lengkap di dunia dan dilaksanakan seiringan dengan sistem konvensional serta membolehkan negara menjadi model untuk pusat kewangan terkemuka yang lain.

“Mentaliti mengenai sistem kewangan Islam yang sering dilihat sebagai pihak pembiaya atau memberi pinjaman perlu diubah kepada rakan kongsi pintar dan usahawan mampu menonjolkan lagi kekuatan sektor itu,” katanya pada Seminar Kebangsaan Kesan Sistem Kewangan Islam di Malaysia Terhadap Kekuatan Ekonomi Ummah: Satu Penilaian yang dirasmikannya di Kuala Lumpur.

Seminar itu dianjurkan Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (Ikim) untuk mengkaji secara mendalam sumbangan sistem kewangan Islam di Malaysia kepada kepada kekuatan ekonomi ummah, meninjau sejauh mana amalan pematuhan syariah dalam sistem kewangan kini bertepatan dengan Maqasid Syariah dan meneroka pendekatan baru untuk menambah baik sistem.

Katanya, konsep perkongsian risiko dibawa oleh kewangan Islam amat releven kepada Malaysia ketika ini berikutan hasrat kerajaan untuk menghasilkan sebuah negara maju dan berpendapatan tinggi. “Hasrat kerajaan ini turut disokong sektor baru berteknologi tinggi seperti bioteknologi, nano teknologi, animasi dan teknologi maklumat, tenaga hijau dan tenaga diperbaharui,” katanya.

S&P puts 15 eurozone governments on notice

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Standard & Poor's said Monday that it placed 15 members of the euro currency union on review for a possible downgrade as the debt crisis in the eurozone continues to worsen.
The blanket warning applies to AAA-rated nations such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg, the U.S.-based credit rating agency said in a press release.

But the review does not change anything for two members of the 17-nation monetary and currency union. Greece's credit rating currently reflects a high risk of default, and Cyprus was already under review.
S&P said the review was prompted "by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole."
The agency sees five factors behind the current debt crisis: Tightening credit conditions, rising yields on bonds issued by top rated sovereigns, ongoing political deadlock over how to deal with the crisis, high levels of government and household debt, and the rising risk that Europe will suffer an economic recession next year.
France is already seen as the most likely candidate to be stripped of its AAA status. But the decision to review Germany, the euro area's most creditworthy nation, points to the severity of the crisis.
Other euro area nations have already seen their ratings slashed by S&P, a division of McGraw-Hill. Most recently, S&P cut its rating on Belgium late last month.

European leaders try again

Italy and Spain have also suffered deep downgrades this year, although both nations retain investment grade ratings. Ireland and Portugal are also clinging onto investment greade ratings, but the rating on the bailed-out nation of Greece is already at junk status. (See correction below)
A downgrade of France or another of the region's top rated nations would have serious consequences for the European Financial Stability Facility. The EFSF, a government backed bailout fund, could lose its AAA rating if the nations that stand behind it are downgraded.

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that Ireland and Portugal have already been cut to junk status. 

 Resources : CNN Money

Ratings agency jumps into euro dilemma

(CNN) -- As eurozone leaders prepare to meet in what some are calling a last-ditch effort to prevent a break-up of Europe's monetary union, the ratings agency S&P warned that 15 eurozone nations -- including top ranked Germany and France -- may face possible downgrade in the next 90 days.

The move echoes a similar step in August when the S&P cut the credit rating of the U.S. from a top-ranked AAA to AA+ after political wrangling in Washington over the growing deficit in the world's largest economy.

News of the possible downgrade in Europe caused a market rally in the U.S. to fizzle, and all major indices in Asia dipped today by more than 1%.

Who are the credit ratings agencies?

The Big Three" are Standard's & Poor's, Moody's Investor Services and Fitch Ratings. All originated in the United States, although Fitch has dual headquarters in New York and London.

What do they do?

Before you can get a credit card, banks run a credit check on you. Similarly, the ratings agencies run credit checks on companies, countries and financial products.

Countries are rated on a sliding scale: the U.S., for example, had a top rating (AAA) which allows it to borrow cash at cheap interest rates. The lower the rating grade, however, the higher interest payments a nation must pay to attract investors to buy its bonds. Anything that slips to junk status -- as Ireland, Portugal and Greek government bonds are rated -- is considered a "highly speculative" investment. Furthermore, the pool of eligible investors is reduced -- many institutional investors, such as government pension funds, are forbidden to invest in junk-rated bonds.

Why do they wield such power?

Investors across the world look to credit rating agencies to judge where to place their bets in the market. For governments, the ratings agencies have a lot of power over the popularity of bonds: cash given to governments by investors that, over time, will pay a return on the original investment -- unless the government defaults.

What does a debt rating downgrade mean?

The decisions of the "Big Three" catalyze market moves in often unpredictable ways, creating a strong ripple effect. In the wake of the Greece downgrade last year, for example, investors across the globe started rethinking investment in other governments' bonds and began selling off more risky investments -- throwing the EU into crisis and depressing the value of the euro.

When the U.S. was downgraded from a top rating to a step below best investment grade on August 5, the market reaction was fierce. At the start of August, the Dow was trading at 12,000; by August 10, days after the downgrade, the Dow dipped below 10,800. There was a similar psychological ripple through the markets after Moody's downgrades of Ireland and Portugal.

How are ratings agencies paid?

Historically, they were created to give investors an unbiased assessment of investments and investors paid for access to the ratings. In the 1970s, however, credit rating agencies started charging the issuers of new investments fees for ratings. In 1975, U.S. legislators -- fearing a proliferation of unscrupulous ratings agencies -- designated Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch as the only ratings organizations banks and brokers could use to evaluate the credit worthiness of their products.

What are the complaints against the firms?

Critics complain the agencies have lost their ability to independently judge the risk on certain investments. Credit ratings agencies had a starring role in the financial crisis, after the firms blessed mortgage-backed securities with AAA ratings -- the safest rating possible -- and fed the global mania for these risky investments.

Critics also note that the agencies are paid by the very entities they rate, raising questions about their trustworthiness.

There are moves afoot in Europe to have more stringent regulation on credit ratings agencies. And the agencies were dealt a blow in a U.S. court last month when a U.S. District Judge James Browning in Albuquerque, New Mexico, rejected "free speech" as an argument in a case against the Big Three credit ratings agencies brought by investors who lost investment in mortgage-backed securities. The ratings agencies often invoke First Amendment right regarding questions about their ratings -- they are simply stating an opinion. It's up to the markets to decide for themselves what to do with that information.

Why everyone should start buying physical GOLD!

What are 'conflict diamonds?'

"Certain countries are putting economic and political interests in front of defending the fundamental principles of the scheme."
Amy Barry of Global Witness

 
CNN) -- A major international environmental group has pulled out of the process to guarantee that diamonds do not come from conflict zones, saying the Kimberley Process had refused "to evolve and address the clear links between diamonds, violence and tyranny." So why are so-called "conflict diamonds" so controversial?
What are conflict diamonds?
Conflict or "blood" diamonds are illegally traded to fund conflict in war-torn areas, particularly in central and western Africa, according to the World Diamond council, which represents the commercial diamond trade.
The United Nations defines conflict diamonds as "...diamonds that originate from areas controlled by forces or factions opposed to legitimate and internationally recognized governments, and are used to fund military action in opposition to those governments, or in contravention of the decisions of the Security Council."
They are generally in "rough" form, meaning they have recently been extracted and not yet cut.
At the height of the civil war in Sierra Leone, it is estimated that conflict diamonds represented approximately four percent of the world's diamond production.
Who suffers?
Apart from the innocent people caught up in the conflicts that the trade fuels, thousands of men, women and children in countries such as Sierra Leone are used as slaves to extract diamonds. They are often forced to use primitive, back-breaking methods such as digging into mud or gravel along river banks with their bare hands. The collected material is then separated using hand-held sieves.

What is the Kimberley Process?
The Kimberley Process started when Southern African diamond-producing states met in Kimberley, South Africa, in May 2000, to discuss ways to stop the trade in conflict diamonds and ensure that diamond purchases were not funding violence.

The result was an agreement by the United Nations, European Union, the governments of 74 countries, the World Diamond Council -- representing the industry -- and a number of interest groups such as Global Witness.
They established the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS), whereby members are required to certify that all rough diamond exports are produced through legitimate mining and sales activities and are "conflict-free."
Each shipment carries a certificate that details where the diamonds came from, how they were mined, where they were cut and polished, the parties involved, and their ultimate destination. The idea is that members of the Kimberley Process cannot trade with non-members.
Is it working?
According to Amy Barry of Global Witness, the Kimberley Process has yet to demonstrate itself capable of stopping the trade because of a lack of political will among member states.
"Zimbabwe, for example, is a test case for the KP," she told CNN in 2010, alleging that Robert Mugabe's regime has benefited from the sale of blood diamonds despite it being a member of the Kimberley Process.
She said the huge Marange diamond fields of eastern Zimbabwe are operated by military-run syndicates who beat or kill miners who don't mine for them or pay bribes. The extreme violence perpetrated by the military even included the mass murder of hundreds of miners by helicopter gunships, she added.
But with just one or two member states able to veto any punitive action against abuses or infringements of the KP scheme, no decisive action has been taken against Zimbabwe. "This consensus decision-making means tough decisions don't get made," said Barry. "Certain countries are putting economic and political interests in front of defending the fundamental principles of the scheme."
Is the "conflict trade" limited to diamonds?
No. According to Global Witness, rebel fighters and army units have hijacked the trade in mineral ores, used in the production of mobile phones and computers, from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while subjecting the local population to massacres, rape, extortion, and forced labor.
The "conflict minerals" are then laundered into the global supply chain by export houses, before being transformed into refined metals by large international smelting firms. Global Witness says the operations of some of the world's leading consumer brands are now being scrutinized for evidence of links to this rogue trade.

Resources : CNN

Harga Produk SG - 05/12/2011

Can the 'badly designed' euro fail?

London (CNN) - Sir Mervyn King’s words today are chilling. The eurozone crisis is “extraordinarily serious and threatening” the Governor of the Bank of England said, and the UK’s central bank was drawing up contingency plans in case the zone breaks up.
This is the icing on the cake that has seen more and more politicians and commentators postulate the unthinkable: a breakup of the zone and the currency. The Economist starts this week’s lead article “even as the eurozone hurtles towards a crash.”
For some weeks now I have believed that such an event was nigh on impossible - surely, I reasoned, politicians would do what is necessary. The Economist says the “consequences are so catastrophic that no sensible policy maker could stand by and let it happen." With such ringing words I think it is worth distinguishing exactly what we are talking about.

I do not believe that the euro, as a currency, will disappear. Three hundred million people use it in their every day life. If the euro were to vanish, then we really are talking about turning the lights out and saying goodnight.
As for the eurozone, it’s a different matter. The eurozone probably won’t survive in its current form of 17 countries. The moment George Papandreou – when he was Greek prime minister – announced that his ill-fated referendum would be a “yes or no to the euro” a rubicon was crossed. The referendum didn’t happen but the incident left behind the concept that membership was no longer irrevocable – contrary to what the EU Treaty says. A country could say “we’re off.”
As the strains start pulling apart the economics of the project, something has to give - or the eurozone in its current form will collapse. This may involve one country leaving (or being kicked out) or a group of countries going off on their own. We can’t know yet.
If it is on the larger scale of failure, I promise you, it will be a catastrophe the like of which we haven’t seen. Banks will fail. Companies will go out of business. Jobs will be lost. People will be saddled with debts for generations. Civil unrest is entirely possible.
If it is just one or two countries being booted out, then the disruption will be much less for the rest, but pretty horrible for those countries involved.
Throughout all of this the euro, I have little doubt, will continue in a truncated form. Those using it will be left with an international weakling - ridiculed and ignored as a serious player. Europe will be the laughing stock of the world’s foreign exchanges.
The euro was a badly designed, poorly executed project whose problems were inherent at birth. The fact politicians failed to address them over many years is the reason why we have reached this nasty place.

Resources : CNN

Harga Produk SG 01/12/2011

 

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